Crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital has reiterated its bullish stance on Bitcoin, predicting a potential surge in price to $114,000 by August 2025.
The forecast comes as the industry grapples with challenges such as inflation concerns, Federal Reserve interest rate policies, and the escalating Middle East crisis.
In its latest report, Pantera Capital revisited its analysis from November 2022, which examined Bitcoin’s past performance before and after its most recent halving event.
Pantera Uses Stock-to-Flow Model to Predict Bitcoin Price
Utilizing a stock-to-flow model, Pantera assessed the supply of Bitcoin in relation to the rate of new production, which is designed to decrease by 50% every four years during halving events.
Historical data shows that Bitcoin’s price has experienced significant increases, sometimes up to 93-fold, in response to these events.
By studying both pre-halving and post-halving rallies, Pantera Capital determined that, on average, prices tend to reach their peak approximately 2.6 years after halving events.
Based on this analysis, the projected timeframe for Bitcoin’s potential surge aligns with August next year.
#Bitcoin Gains Post-Halving
2012: 𝟏𝟔,𝟐𝟎𝟎% or 163x
2016: 𝟒,𝟎𝟎𝟎% or 41x
2020: 𝟏𝟔𝟔𝟓% or 17.65x
Even 1/4th of 2020 gains will put the #BTC price at $𝟮𝟴𝟬,𝟬𝟬𝟬.
Current sentiment is bad but keep this in mind;) pic.twitter.com/GWRtu1MleI
— Ted (@TedPillows) May 8, 2024
While the stock-to-flow model is not an exact science, it has gained popularity within the crypto industry as a tool to evaluate the intrinsic value of Bitcoin.
Pantera Capital’s forecast joins a chorus of other optimistic predictions for Bitcoin.
Research firm Bernstein has set a target of $150,000 by mid-2025, while Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, envisions a price of $170,000 or higher next year.
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Thomas Lee has also expressed the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 in 2024 and even $500,000 over the next five years.
Bitcoin Sees Heightened Volatility
Bitcoin closed the week at approximately $64,000, representing a 1.4% increase from the previous week’s closing value of around $63,100.
The week was marked by heightened volatility, with prices initially dipping significantly to around $56,500 on Wednesday before rebounding above $60,000 by Friday.
While Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows for the fourth consecutive week, the period of outflows may have peaked, Matteo Greco, a research analyst at digital asset investment firm Fineqia International, said in a recent note.
He added that trading volume for Bitcoin ETFs remained relatively steady during the week, with cumulative trading volume since inception reaching $246.6 billion.
During the week alone, trading volume amounted to $10.9 billion, a 12.3% increase from the previous week.
However, these figures still fall below the average trading volume of $3.1 billion since the inception of Bitcoin ETFs.
“These figures suggest that the period of outflows may have peaked, with trading volumes showing signs of increase and outflows potentially stabilizing,” he wrote.
Furthermore, following a four-month period of consistent outflows, Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF finally witnessed a positive shift.
On Friday, May 3, the downward trajectory was reversed when GBTC experienced its first inflow of $63 million.
As a result, the overall spot Bitcoin ETF market saw net positive inflows of $378.3 million after seven days of continuous outflows.
The trend continued on Monday, May 6, as GBTC recorded its second inflow of $3.9 million, bringing the total inflows to $66.9 million.
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